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        機器取代人的時代到來:到2025年將承擔人類半數工作

        彭博社 2018年09月20日

        有報告稱,當前的所謂“第四次工業革命”可能在全球范圍創造1.33億個工作崗位,7500萬勞動者可能失業。

        世界經濟論壇(WEF)新近報告預計,未來七年內人類的工作半數都將交給機器和自動化軟件。不過報告還預計,人工智能、機器人和精密醫療技術創造的新崗位可能比威脅到的崗位多。

        WEF上述報告于本周一公布,研究者是來自12個行業的高管和專家。報告的結論是:當前的所謂“第四次工業革命” 可能在全球范圍創造1.33億個工作崗位,7500萬勞動者可能失業。

        WEF新經濟與社會中心的主管薩阿迪亞·扎赫迪表示,無論是道德上還是經濟上,企業都有必要投資為員工提供培訓和繼續教育。“如果不積極調整,企業和員工都可能落伍。”她說。

        科研機構、咨詢公司和各國政府一直在努力判斷新技術對就業的影響,此舉是最新行動。包括WEF早前發布的報告在內,此前的一些研究都預計,自動化消滅的人類工作崗位將超過創造的崗位。

        然而,新技術將取代人類崗位數量方面,各研究組織的預測結果相差甚遠。英國央行2015年的研究得出的數字最慘,稱到2035年美國和英國分別有多達8000萬和1500萬個人類崗位被新技術取代。去年12月麥肯錫的一份報告卻相對樂觀,稱到2030年預計新技術導致人類崗位的數量可能跟新增崗位相當。

        WEF的最新報告分析認為,自動化對不同行業的影響可能差別很大,礦業、消費類和信息技術企業的就業可能受創最嚴重,一些專業服務公司所受影響相對較小。

        總部位于瑞士的WEF在報告中指出,新增的很多崗位可能沒有過去的“鐵飯碗” 牢靠,因為企業選擇將越來越多的工作外包,要么找自由職業者。WEF警告道,新工作對勞動者技能的需求與現有技能截然不同。

        WEF預計,要想把握數字技術創造的新機遇,大企業半數以上的員工都要接受大量培訓。但一半企業僅打算為關鍵崗位的人員開展培訓。對可能因新技術而失業的員工,僅有三分之一的企業計劃提供培訓。

        WEF因每年在瑞士滑雪度假勝地達沃斯舉辦企業界和政界領袖峰會聞名。該組織表示,報告的依據是對企業高管、戰略官、人力資源專家的調查問卷,受訪對象來自20個國家的300家全球性企業。WEF稱,調研涉及企業合計擁有超過1500萬員工,經濟體量占全球國內生產總值總和的70%。(財富中文網)

        譯者:Pessy

        審校:夏林

        ?

        Machines and automated software will be handling fully half of all workplace tasks within seven years, a new report from the World Economic Forum forecasts. But the group said technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and precision medicine, could create more jobs than they threaten.

        In a study of executives and specialists across 12 industries, published Monday, the WEF concluded that this so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” could create 133 million jobs globally, while 75 million workers may be displaced.

        Saadia Zahidi, head of the WEF’s Center for the New Economy and Society, said companies had “a moral and economic imperative” to invest in retraining and continuing education for their employees. “Without proactive approaches, businesses and workers may lose out,” she said.

        The report is the latest in a series of efforts by academics, consultancies and governments to assess the impact of new technologies on employment. Previous studies, including an earlier one by the WEF, have generally forecast automation will destroy more jobs than it creates.

        The scale of projected displacement varies enormously between research groups, however. A Bank of England study in 2015 produced some of the bleakest figures, forecasting that as many as 80 million jobs in the U.S. and 15 million in the U.K. could be lost by 2035. A McKinsey report in December produced one of the rosier assessments, forecasting jobs lost and created by new technology might be about equal by 2030.

        In its latest analysis, the WEF said the effects of automation may vary substantially across industries, and predicted job losses to be heaviest in mining, consumer, and information technology companies, and less within professional services firms.

        Many new jobs may be less secure than in the past, as businesses are increasingly turning to contractors and freelancers, the Swiss foundation said. It warned there’s a significant gap between the skills workers currently have and those that may be required for future new roles.

        It estimates more than half of employees at large companies would need significant retraining in order to take advantage of new opportunities created by digital technology. But it said half of all companies plan retraining only for “key roles,” and only one-third say they plan any retraining for at-risk workers.

        Best known for throwing an annual summit of business and government leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, the WEF said it based its forecast on a survey of senior executives, strategy officers and human resource specialists at 300 global companies, spanning 20 different countries. It said these companies represented more than 15 million employees and their economies represented 70% of global GDP.

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